Just thought I’d start a thread for people to share their bets (if they want to).
I just put this one on as had a free bet stake to use up so tried to pick the 4 winners from the Wild Card Games - went with Texans on the handi-cap so hoping if they lose it’s a close game as they have a +3.5 start. The other three I just took the money lines as weirdly 2 away teams are favourites and the other I was surprised the away team is not favourite but as I hate them went with the home team thinking bookies ain’t usually wrong.
Hi Noel !
I have had a £50 double on the Bengals and Redskins to win their games (money line)
As a silly throwaway bet i also had a tenner on a KC - GB final at 100-1 !
(and yes I know Washington play the Packers so at least one of those bets is going straight in the bin this weekend!)
Half Time/Full Time in the late Sunday night game.
Washington HT / Packers FT @ 15/2
Here’s the logic behind the bet.
a) Best Odds with Boylesports, they are always best priced on this type of bet. However if anyone was interested in Noels previous 888sport post, they are 8-1 and will give treble odds on the first bet (its only a tenner max. bet but this would pay £250 if you think its worth opening an account (I don’t, but that’s a post for another time).
b) It’s tipped to be the tightest match-up of the week which plays into this type of punt.
c) The Green Bay head coach likes to defer if they win the toss, if Washington win, its very doubtful they would defer when playing at home to a packed stadium, so a slight first advantage to the ‘Skins. Of course this would mean Green Bay gets the ball in the second half when we need them to turn the game ‘round
d) Should Washington lead this play-off game, perhaps the gravity of the situation would set-in, they are not used to been in these big games let alone winning them, conversely Green Bay are the total opposite.
e) Would you want any other NFL quarterback (Brady aside), to try to mount a come from behind win?
Alas I should of done research before betting as I didn’t realise when putting the Steerlers in my Wild Card 4-fold DeAngelo was defo out… that would of swayed me to the Bengals and alas the line has moved on the Texans as I only got them at +3.5. I always seem to do things wrong when I wait I loose out as was gonna bet the under in some games and now the line has shifted down about 3 - 4 points which is huge and makes me wish I’d got on earlier but the bet I did do 2 days ago would of been better to wait on as I went Washington on the money line (just cause I really don’t like the Packers - heart and they was favs being at home in what I thought was a coin flip game so took them straight up) but now the Packers is favourites so can get Skins with more juice now or a head start compared to when I put my bet on (as Skins was 1 point favs at the time) - money obviously come in heavy for the Packers to shift that line by 2 points flipping who’s favs now making GB 1 point favs on the spread - when lines came out is was Skins by a point. Arr well betting ain’t never been my fortay skill wise.
Say while I am here if you fancy a few more fun punts on Saturdays Wild Card games I got a couple of Squares grids going on: WILD CARD SQUARES
William Hill have a nice enhanced odds bet for a Hopkins TD & Texans win, at 5/1, or a Hopkins TD + Kelce TD at 7/1. Although I’d make the Texans quite heavy underdogs here, so possibly not a great bet.
It’s an amazingly interesting weekend for picking winners. In the post season and especially the deep cold I turn more focus to the defence, line of scrimmage and runners.
The Chiefs have a great chance but I have to point out that on their epic run they only met one D that would be considered true top ten quality. That was the Bronco’s in Mid November when it all went wrong for the blue and orange. I think the Texans have a better chance than many might expect but much will depend on Hopkins and Blue, the latter has found a stride recently, albeit v some soft teams.
In all honesty I can’t call the Bungals v Steelers game but I don’t like confliction and I’m long term invested in the Steelers so I’m leaning that way. It’s the game of the weekend on paper imo & I like that the Steelers have a great run D and that we have a young QB on the other side. I don’t like the Steelers having to rely on Toussaint given the great depth at the position (when healthy) but it’s all about Bryant, if he pops Toussaint will have huge holes to bounce through. Having Bryant on my FF roster this season I saw a real downward curve in the 2nd half of the season (not just the last 2 games). Big Ben has called him out this week and I think the game rests on how he responds. If he goes like he can it opens up everything else for the Steelers.
Apparently Lynch did not travel and tbh reading between the lines it looks like this is not actually injury related. When Lynch was up early in the season he was not the same guy and those coming in have done a great job, even Michael has got his groove on recently, to an extent. For me the line of scrimmage is won by the Seahawks here and when we add the dual running threat factor that Wilson offers up, it can only be Seahawks, right? Wilson to go big on the ground…
The Packers, words cannot describe how poor the packers have been this season (by their own std’s). Nobody suspected that Cobb is not actually a true number one. All indications proved that when opposing Ds focus on him first or double him up he has no reply. Nelson, who while not bleeding speed has enough zip and route running skills to make the deep field respected by opposition, this opened up the underneath game and without Nelson the Cheese heads have really struggled with a generally quite slow offense. It goes without saying that the green & yellow shall rely heavily on Fat Lacy this Sunday. He is very matchup dependent but that’s ok, the Skins are 26th v the run on the season and it’s this stat that I like the most. The Packers are not great v the run either but early indications suggest Matt Jones might not play and I just don’t trust the Butler this season and against an improving Defence. Fat Lacy to go big on the ground & end a drawn out but immensely enjoyable period of “You Like That”!!
Very interesting piece Gordon - personally my heart gets in the way (not good for betting) so I want the Packers to crash and burn right here right now and go no further (sorry Mark from the TFP Whatts App group).
I got Burnt by Lacy on the Rushing Yard Overs last week - did he even get on the pitch second half - I don’t recall him getting a carry after half time?
Not sure I’m ready to do that again even though what you say makes sense on paper.
I want a better price but with the extreme cold and AP in fine fettle I dunno just got this inkling the Vikings could surprise everyone and eek this game out (in a close match up). All depends on the Vikings D me thinks as the Vikes will not win a high scoring game… and for this reason I also like the under in this match points wise.
I had a terrible weekend gambling on Wild Card games - firstly I limited myself to 3 £100 bets (all Singles)
Bet #1 - Vikings on the money line. We all know how that ended!
Bet #2 - Alfred Morris to go over 50.5 yards Rushing - he was on 50 yards exactly with the 4th Quarter still to go but as the Skins was trailing so much they used their other Running Back - who is better receiving so he finished on exactly 50yds - so half a yard short of me winning - second time that’s happened to me this year on a player prop… (as on the Thanks Giving Lions game I had £100 on Golden Tate to go over 50.5 yards receiving and he to had 50 Yards at halftime but as the Lions was so far up on the Eagles they only ran the ball second half to chew up the clock and he never had another catch. Any way I digress back to the WC games…
Be #3 - Third and last player prop was in same game - after I lost £200 betting on Eddie Lacy to go Over the week before (WK 17) this week I bet him to go under 60.5 yards rushing - his last carry of the game for GB went for 8 yards when he fumbled the ball but they still give him the 8 yards before fumbling putting him on 63yrds for the game so over the line I got by 2.5 yards - Arghhhhhhhhh as that was a prop of Brads I tried to copy but he got under 65.5 yards so he wins and I lose!
Moving on I ran 2 x squares grids on Saturday’s Wild Card games as went to London to meet with others from this site that was up for watching the game with company. Spent all week trying to get the game up and running online with mixed results (Big thanks to AWNFL on here for his help) but alas it didn’t light the fire of most people not coming out on the jolly - but I guaranteed prizes - so in effect decided to play bookie for a change meaning all unsold squares became house squares - aka I bought them. As I didn’t sell all the squares but I guaranteed the prizes had to hope for the big prizes to fall on house squares - alas first game they did not and only luck meant that did not happen second game to. So when all was said and done as I had to pay out more than collected in I lost about a bulls-eye give or take a fiver. So another 50 spondollies down. Feels better paying out people you know than online bookies but still a loss is a loss.
So am I the unluckiest guy you know - I’m certainly the unluckiest person I know! :-<
Edit - Top of this post I just noticed another losing 4-fold accumulator for £20 I had on the Wild Card round of games that went pop first game so add that to the losses to - so just on NFL I lost about £380 - so over a weeks wages by about £50 sobs! - hate to think what looses where when you throw in GG’s and English footie - I need a beer.
