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Week 4 NFL bets


#1

Week 3’s done. so let’s pick ourselves up off the floor and have another go at the bookies!

I’ve had a double on the Dolphins and the Buccs to both win.
And a spread treble on a few outsiders I like the look of: Vikes +6.5, Browns +7.5 and Lions +9.5

Will probably add a little fun bet at longer odds nearer the day
:moneybag: :football: :moneybag:


#2

‘Fortune favours the brave’ I suppose with a few of those Jon :open_mouth:


#3

Gutted I couldn’t get a large bet on the Steelers +3, Bet365 offers the chance to still have that but with reduced odds. Should get week 4 off to a flyer against a terrible looking Ravens side on Thursday


#4

Yep, they were on my shortlist. I would make the Steelers a narrow favourite for this one even without Big Ben, so interesting to see the bookies called it with the Ravens as favourites.


#5

Michael Vick 'Game Manager’
That just doesn’t sound right :open_mouth:


#6

I am on Bet365 but they is only +2.5 now - still taking them though! Odds 21/20 at time of posting this (which I think was the same odds in Super Bowl that I tanked all my dough on backing the wrong team).


#7

Agree about the steelers tonight, lump on Bell anytime scorer and Steelers to win at 11/4 :football::raised_hands:


#8

How the steelers not win that game, mike tomlin, mike vick and josh scobee are not getting a Xmas card this year :triumph:


#9

Fortunately for me Coral went back to +3 for the Steelers, so I get a push on that game. I can’t believe the Steelers went for a 50+ yarder into the wind when it made sense to put the Ravens so far back with time expiring fast. Then cant believe they didn’t give the chance for Scobee to make up for his disasters.

Surely throwing in that position with the back-up QB when they have the best RB in the league is the most stupid decision we will see all season. The odds of a sucessful first down must have been slimmer than making the FG.

Very poor from Mike Tomlin (and that going to 2 every time bollox ain’t going to work long)


#10

Jimmy Clausen will possbly be the worst QB of all 30 playing this week but it seems to me the Bears will keep it close early on and Martellus Bennett will be the main target against a team who struggle against Tight Ends.

1st TD Bennett
Sky Bet 10-1


#11

Well that spread bet went OK for me!


#12

Love it - well played Jon.

I’ve tried tell the other guys that playing Against The Spread is more profitable in the long run as you don’t need to have such a long list of teams in the Acca to make a nice profit. Betting ATS really makes you think though and it can be frustrating (i actually quite funny at times hoping the team you have backed, misses a FG or PAT just so you cover the spread).

Most importantly though the bookmakers margins are at their lowest in this form of betting (VC is 5%)


#13

Jon - you should be checking oddschecker, you could have gotten a better handicap on two of your picks (here’s mine from Coral last week). Those extra points will make all the difference to your punting over a full season.
You did get a better ATS for the Lions, so I’m guessing you bet that quite late?

PIT Steelers - BAL Ravens @ PIT Steelers - Spread 19/20 +3.0 Draw
CIN Bengals - KC Chiefs @ CIN Bengals - Spread 19/20 -3.5 Won
SEA Seahawks - DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks - Spread 10/11 -10.0 Lost
MIN Vikings - MIN Vikings @ DEN Broncos - Spread 20/23 +7.0 Won


#14

All those bets got placed last Tuesday, so I guess I was running the risk that the line may move for or against me over the rest of the week.
Basically, barring injury news over the week, the head starts and odds were all ones I thought were good value at the time I put the bet on. Would agree though, that the more bookies I am registered with, the more I can shop around!


#15

Hi Jon

I don’t think you need too many accounts. I like Betvictor for NFL (&Football) as their margins are the tightest. You just need to be mindful that the key numbers in NFL ATS betting 3, 7, 10, 6 & 4. are critical to making a profit. At our level most of the other numbers won’t matter too much, but getting 3 instead of 2.5 last week on the Steelers made 100% difference to me (Got me a £200 refund :sunglasses:)

May not matter again this season but that 8% line difference made 100% to that bet (fkin Mike Tomlin also made a 100% difference - the jerk).