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US Open 2016


#1

Anybody having a flutter on the US Open that starts today? These are my picks as I look for some each-way value. I particularly like the chances of Kuchar, Kaymer and Leishman.

Matt Kuchar 40/1
Bubba Watson 45/1
Danny Willett 45/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 66/1
Martin Kaymer 66/1
Marc Leishman 80/1
J.B. Holmes 80/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 125/1
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1
Thomas Aiken 300/1


#2

Thanks for the reminder!
Yep, like Leishman in particular on your list - have just put a quick bet on him and also on Matt Fitzpatrick to carry on from his great finish at the Masters. Fingers crossed :golf:


#3

I like Kevin Chappell as an outsider too


#4

Good thread. Now that the DK selections are locked in :smiley: I’m happy to discuss here.

While betting in the early stages of a golf tournament is extremely hazardous this week there is a very clear vision. Oakmont is one of the toughest courses in the US and this week should be more about hitting fairways and greens and scoring par than scoring birdies. Guys at the top of fairways hit, greens hit, bogey avoidance should be the order of the day in theory. I cant help but like the chances of Garcia, Kuchar and Knox, all at really nice prices still and all in my DK lineup this week.

Fingers crossed


#5

Well, the forecast storms have well and truly arrived! Lots of interruptions.


#6

Yeh. day one ripped to shreds really but anybody under +2 and with most of the round complete must be content. The afternoon players not even started yet, if they get a bad deal weather wise it could throw them behind the 8 ball early on. Something I dont like about our own British open, the weather and the affect it has in relation to the draw can basically make or break a players chance without them even hitting a ball, hope thats not the case here this week. Look for the course to get tougher as the week goes on and the greens to become lightening fast.


#7

Can I still get value betting - I only just seen this thread and missed the boat pre-start so will bet in-play if the values there so any updates those of you that follow golf be much appreciated… as in who should I back now and with which bookie get best value - I mean e/w some may go down further than others. Not a golf follower myself have only ever bet once when TFP bods tipped some big odds fella at the US Open and it gave me a real interest to watch on BBC2 live late at night and I got quite into it. So if this is on TV at all and having a tickle may do likewise for me. Cheers.


#8

Noel,

I totally get the logic re hunting down the best deals, it makes great sense. I’m just anal about every bookmaker under the sun having my details and spamming me crap all year so I only really use Betfair and Paddypower which means I cant really help with where the best odds or deals are. If there is one thing I really dont like about betting on golf, its when the weather is bad. This is because I believe golf to be a game and high’s and lows which equate to momentum and if something such as the weather interrupts the momentum then ultimately the puzzle becomes 10 times harder. I never bet big in golf anymore, not unless I get a good train of thought late on Sunday night and I suggest its a market you either dont involve in or if you do keep things low key. My picks are above should you chose to get involved but try to keep it small. Also try to find a couple of sports that you really enjoy and stick to those markets if you really have to punt. Right now you seem to be jumping around every market thats open and thats only going to lead to a loss imo. Good luck dude.


#9

I hear you - I like a bet on sports not into as it gives me an interest - never would of watched the horse racing on C4 from Ascot this week had I not had a punt on it. Same will be with the golf - no interest in watching unless I have that added caveat of winning money and a guy to root for thus making me route against others. As for sports I’m into those are ones I bet heavily and would say they are NFL & football (soccer). I like cricket and cycle racing to and watch without a bet (fantasy games seem good enough to keep me really interested) but really bet very little on them now as it’s so hard and learnt the hard way losing a pretty penny in past.

So all part of my research is picking the brains of the TFP community on them sports I am not into in case there’s value to be had and/or to give me an added interest using that knowledge to have a wee punt on them sports when they are on ordinary TV. So Golf and horse racing both fall into that category for me.

Was going to do baseball but I don’t understand Brads spread sheets to be honest and got my fingers burnt first few bets so decided to pan the idea of baseball betting - may delete my Google sheet I set up on it as decided not going to regularly bet that sport going forward - as its not much fun betting on a sport I know sod all about and is not on ordinary TV to be able to watch. However I hate being down and know enough TFP’ers that like baseball so as I am only about £50 down baseball betting hopefully Brad, Simon, Dean or Jon who I think all bet (and possibly like) baseball could tip me 1 or 2 bets they really like between now and end of season so I can get back to black and close that sheet off even or slightly up.

Any way thanks for the advice.


#10

Hey Noel,

All that sounds good fella. Like yourself I have the occasional punt on something but sometimes I fear when we all get going on it we lose sight of what this place is all about.

Personally I would like to see most if not all betting chat in one place, sometimes it just feels a little suffocating, especially when we start getting into the details of it. Myself included. Think it would be good if we could channel that type of banter into a couple of threads on this forum such as this one and therefore free up other parts of the forum and the what’s app group for actual sport chat, friendly chat and general discussions as its these things that offer us the chance of growth.

My choices for the golf this week are doing ok, Garcia doing best of all but he needs to improve his driving to have a chance, 50% fairways hit is simply not good enough on this course but he is 2 behind a terrible closer in Dustin Johnson so we shall see. It will be interesting to see how Knox does in his 2nd round.

Good luck Noel


#11

Dustin closed out just fine in the end :smiley:


#12

The amount of times I have backed him and he fails to deliver and now he finally comes good when I don’t. :smile:


#13

He is not the greatest closer normally and I think had there been better names chasing him at the end he may have fluffed another opportunity however he found a course that really suited his game and held his cool towards the end.


#14

BMW International & Quicken Loans National start tomorrow. I am following these picks listed in this golf blog.

https://fragbet.co/2016/06/22/golf-picks/

Going to back them as always small each-way bets. :slight_smile: