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Super bowl - Betting Theory


#1

Hi Guys…

I love picking up trends and in recent years few have been better than the underdog winning in the super bowl… annoying then that the bookies generally have this down as a 50/50 coin toss. I think it will be close and potentially low scoring. For me the Pats just have it and I like the look of 6/4 for the Pats to win by up to 10. While its not a bet I would normally place I also think the low scoring pushes first half/second half bets into the limelight, I could see a small lead at half time being wiped out easily and so doing Seattle (half time) / Pats (full time) and reversing that with a 2nd bet offers decent value and a bet that virtually guarantees excitement moving into the 2nd half. I also like the idea of a cheap bet on Blount to score the first and last touchdowns, PP has him at 9/1 for either and yet evens to score at any time.

In each of the last 3 years the super bowl has made me profit, the first 2 because I went with the underdog and then last year when I could not see past a Broncos win : ( but came good with a side bet where I had an overpriced 9/2 on the 3rd quarter containing the most points scored. You can Imagine how delighted I was as Seattle returned the 2nd half kick off for a TD.

Would be great to read about other betting strategies you may have for the big game as we move through the week? Good luck to all in your chase of an exciting & profitable finale and thanks for making it such an enjoyable season!


#2

My key strategy is to pull the Pats out of Noel’s sweepstake!!

Apart from that, your mention of Blount is interesting - I can certainly see him scoring and was considering having a punt on him as Superbowl MVP. The other guy I was looking at backing for that in Gronk - both QBs are very underpriced (Blunt 25-1, Gronk 14-1 at Ladbrokes)

Like your idea on the half time / full time - can see how that would give you an interest throughout. I was considering either Draw / NE or Draw / SEA, both at big odds (and small stakes!)

Best of luck Gordon!


#3

Hi Gordon, I like the ‘unders’ too in this one. Vegas (who generally set the lines), have to artificially raise the Total because most casual punters who like to have an occasional once a year punt, tend to go for overs so they can cheer for both offences. Because I’m going to Superbash, I wont do the bet because like most Americans I want to enjoy the game, NOT worry about every scoring point. Also the only downside to this bet is that I try to avoid QB’s who can score TD’s in bunches (Brady, Brees, Payton etc).

The best prop bet I’ve seen to date is Gronk to be MVP, Seattle should be okay against all the other weapons NE have to offer. 16-1 looks like cracking value to me (there is no way he would be 16-1 to score multiple TD’s).


#4

Hi Jon,

Good luck with the sweepstake fella. I really like Blount for MVP, that could certainly happen as the Pats run the ball a lot, especially in the end zone and he is the clear power back. That’s a big price, I’m going to have myself some of that. I don’t like Gronk for MVP however, he will be the number one priority for the Hawks D and I actually think will be used early as a decoy and then may come good later in the game or not all as some suggest strong safety Kam Chancellor will be manning up on Gronk a lot.

Just thoughts, the very opposite could happen of course ; )

Good luck


#5

Hi Dean,

I think we posted at about the same time. As above I totally get the logic that Gronk could be MVP, 16/1 is a nice price but I just think he will draw a huge amount of focus. That said good luck fella. Yes the unders is looking good IMHO, was not aware however who set the numbers, that’s interesting! I think I saw under 49 total points at about evens in Ladbrokes, for the big stake, short odds punter that looks real nice to me.


#6

LOL I’m the opposite to you!! I think Blount is flavour of the moment because of the performance against the Colts who are always terrible against the run. In saying that 25-1 is fair value.


#7

haha we are posting in sync now, this is a little embarrassing lol…

Yeh I hear you and your right, Blount ran against a crap run defence last week, we shall see. The world would be an incredibly dull place if we all agreed.


#8

I reckon your monies safe guys (as I am so often wrong of late) I have all but made up my mind to ship the house on a Seattle win - I think it is a 50/50 shot and only because of the last round - the Hawks looking so shaky home to the Packers and the Pats looking so awesome against the Colts before that everyone and his dog had Seattle as the favs so I like how it’s made the bookies have no clue and both teams almost at evens - adjusting for how much exposure they have… money on. I see this as my true shot at getting out my hole or going bankrupt… so far I seen on the money line last week Seattle at 22/23 - then yesterday 24/25 but also last week Pats on handicap was +1 and Seattle -1 but yesterday that had shifted to Seattle +1 and Pats -1. Really is a coin toss for the bookies and excluding the last round of games I say the Seattle DEF is better than the Pats one and DEFENSES win Championships so am falling that way and will stick every last penny I have in various sports books on them - just waiting as I think if the bookies have not taken in enough money they may make prices more attractive or increase the handicap - especially if everyone else thinks Pats and lumps on them - I just may be able to get a almost evens price on Seattle at perhaps +3 nearer the game so waiting to see. But having lost 3K over the last month - maybe more (on all bets not just NFL) - am shipping over 6K on this… maybe I’m nuts but if I am right I am back to even if I am wrong well I have no more money to bet with so just maybe I can kick this bad habit! :stuck_out_tongue:


#9

Dude, that’s a crazy ass amount to bet on an event where the entire world is struggling to define a favourite in a 2 horse race. Each to their own however, I just hope your about to run your excellent league this year.
If you do it, whatever the result, I hope its the right result for you long term.

Good luck


#10

It’s been a very long time since a running back won a Super Bowl MVP.

Obviously it’s pretty much going to be Brady or Wilson, as both the odds and history show that, but aside from those two it could be Gronk (if NE win) or Earl Thomas/Kam Chancellor.

Won’t be Lynch as the NFL hate him, and I doubt it will be Blount.


#11

Checking the odds now, Pats are the slight favourites, whereas I think the situation was reversed a week ago.

Can’t you hedge your bets a bit BLM?

The odds on a Gronk TD (1.83) seem pretty good, and that type of bet doesn’t rely on another event not happening.


#12

Adam I think your right in 1.83 being a decent price for Gronk to catch something in the end zone but going along with my thinking that Gronk will be a decoy early on & that the hawks CB’s are special I think we might see TD’S for either Michael Hoomanawanui or specifically Tim Wright who is 7/2 to score at any time.


#13

Doesn’t Sherman always stay on the left? not necessarily marking the main danger.

Tim Wright is 25-1 ‘again’ to be first TD scorer. This doubles if you bet with PaddyP or BetFred.


#14

Dean,

I was trying to suggest that TB will throw to the CB’s rarely which would force him to go to the tight ends more and with Gronk being a main focus of the opposing D it may lead to some TD’s coming from lesser known TE’s…


#15

I like the Wright bet at 25/1 a lot.

When the Pats reach the red zone for the first time, the attention will be on Gronk and Blount, inevitably. It is then a classic move to sell the play to one of them but pull a less common target out of the bag. Brady will not fake the hand off and run for home on a naked bootleg, it’s just not his game, so the “surprise” will be Wright in there to block (seemingly) coming off the block and scurrying into the end zone to take a catch in acres of vacant real estate.

That sounds like a game plan that will happen more often than once in twenty-five.


#16

Hi TBC, you are right, that should happen more than once in 25. The reason I put ‘again’ in my post is because I posted a similar bet week12 when Wright duly obliged at 25’s, I was still celebrating my £260 return when he went in again for another £250 - That’s why its important to get the double bonus if you can.

I’m on again on Sunday night, lets hope we’re both celebrating.


#17

How do you get this double bubble - which bookies do that?


#18

Betfred & Paddy Power do ‘double odds’ if your first TD scorer goes on to score another TD.

Tim Wright is currently 25-1 with BF. The only thing which usually puts me off backing a New England player is that they tend to defer even if they win the toss.


#19

Bollox - wish I had read this first - or maybe I did and forgot but I stuck £50 on Marshawn Lynch @ 7/1 with Bet Victor yesterday! :frowning:

Naturally I still want him to score it but will suck to know could of got a much better deal elsewhere wish the sites would promote these things more.


#20

Not anymore he’s not just been to Betfred and Tim Wright is only 12/1 now for 1st TD scorer - tight so and so’s every thing has come in as last week I got 14/1 on a safety with Hills - now on Betfred that’s only 5/1! :open_mouth: