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Hope for Denver fans


#1

Just looking at the Vegas lines in recent Superbowls - especially ones where there was a clear favourite (Vegas line of 4 pts start or higher)

2013 - Ravens 4.5 points outsiders - won
2009 - Saints 4.5 points outsiders - won
2008 - Cardinals 6.5 points outsiders - lost but covered the spread (23 - 27)
2007 - Giants 12.5 points outsiders - won

You have to go back to 2006 for an underdog who underperformed (Bears 6.5 underdogs, lost 29-17 to the Colts… as in Peyton Manning’s Colts…!)

History suggests that the Broncos are well in this despite being underdogs ever since the Championship games finished


#2

Hi Jon,

This was exactly my thinking in recent weeks. As you suggest recent history indicates that clear underdogs have some form of underdog advantage which I put down to mob mentality. I think being the underdog in a team of 53 who are supercharged to prove the world wrong is something to note.

Additionally I think that in the intensity of the SB it is easier to stop plays than it is to make plays and therefore the advantage goes to the team with the best D. Put underdog and D together and we get Denver.


#3

If I recall correctly the Hawks were slight underdogs when they beat Denver & the Giants when they beat the Pats.


#4

I also felt this but alas had so many things going on along with going away to soccer on the Saturday not only did I never get to make all the bets I planned including going heavy on Denver at +6 (on the day they was down to +4.5 so swerved regrettably) I was to late for the curry - #gutted!

Maybe you have to thank me not getting on the Broncs for them winning Gordon if you are to believe the others in our Originals league that on Watts App say I am the jinx on any bet (as I was on the Panthers from earlier in post season plus got them in my own Play-Off sweep stake). :anguished: