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Grand National can trends predict the winner?


#1

The Grand National is without doubt the hardest race in the calendar to predict a winner. 40 Horses all weighted to finish together. You need luck in running!

Nine of the past ten previous winners, shared the following characteristics -
9 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 6lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £13,000

1 1-6221 Many Clouds27 9 11-10 Oliver Sherwood25 Leighton Aspell 165 163 174
2 1-22P1 Silviniaco Conti49 10 11-8 Paul Nicholls57 Noel Fehily 163 160 183
3 8432P First Lieutenant63 11 11-4 M F Morris80 159 139 169
4 783P-2 Wonderful Charm120 8 11-3 Paul Nicholls57 Sam Twiston-Davies 158 126 176
5 535PP7 Ballynagour23 10 11-2 David Pipe64 157 128 173
6 P1P87 O´Faolains Boy22 9 11-1 Rebecca Curtis60 156 126 176
7 1-3455 Gilgamboa23 8 11-1 E Bolger67 156 166 179
8 7U4828 On His Own22 12 11-1 W P Mullins58 Mr P W Mullins 156 124 169
9 1F-662 The Druids Nephew35 9 11-0 Neil Mulholland50 Denis O’Regan 155 151 167
10 P3-15 Triolo D´Alene49 9 11-0 Nicky Henderson100 Jeremiah McGrath 155 132 174
11 P-2P40 Rocky Creek42 10 10-13 Paul Nicholls57 Andrew Thornton 154 145 176
12 F4/157 Sir Des Champs63 10 10-13 W P Mullins58 154 100 173
13 3-54P2 Holywell25 9 10-12 Jonjo O´Neill50 Richie McLernon 153 145 181
14 15-3P Shutthefrontdoor35 9 10-11 Jonjo O´Neill50 Barry Geraghty 152 155 168
15 9-0413 Soll51 11 10-11 David Pipe64 152 151 169
16 5-3243 Buywise70 9 10-10 Evan Williams50 151 163 177
17 0-50P1 Boston Bob49 11 10-10 W P Mullins58 R Walsh 151 143 171
18 411209 Aachen35 12 10-10 Venetia Williams50 151 135 171
19 3-224 Morning Assembly25 9 10-9 P A Fahy25 Davy Russell 150 133 172
20 24599 Double Ross25 10 10-9 Nigel Twiston-Davies56 150 147 176
21 2-3942 Goonyella34 9 10-8 J T R Dreaper J J Burke 149 126 172
22 1P-623 Ucello Conti79 8 10-8 Gordon Elliott40 149 110 169
23 80312 Unioniste27 8 10-8 Paul Nicholls57 Nick Scholfield 149 128 175
24 P02615 Le Reve42 8 10-8 Lucy Wadham33 149 152 174
25 3-1U75 Gallant Oscar34 10 10-8 A J Martin59 149 141 172
26 1-1225 Onenightinvienna49 7 10-8 Philip Hobbs54 Tom O’Brien 149 145 177
27 12-311 The Last Samuri35 8 10-8 Kim Bailey33 David Bass 149 159 180
28 72-15 Kruzhlinin25 9 10-7 Philip Hobbs54 Richard Johnson 148 143 174
29 S32254 Rule The World34 9 10-7 M F Morris80 148 130 174
30 31-092 Just A Par18 9 10-6 Paul Nicholls57 Sean Bowen 147 149 172
31 0/P-P0 Katenko25 10 10-6 Venetia Williams50 147 43 132
32 2-85P6 Vics Canvas49 13 10-6 Dermot Anthony McLoughlin67 Robert Dunne 147 158 173
33 57-0U6 Black Thunder63 9 10-6 Paul Nicholls57 Gavin Sheehan 147 138 175
34 B-4935 Ballycasey23 9 10-6 W P Mullins58 147 147 173
35 1/6P-7 Hadrian´s Approach42 9 10-6 Nicky Henderson100 Nico de Boinville 147 149 169
36 111U26 Vieux Lion Rouge25 7 10-5 David Pipe64 146 150 173
37 45-15 Pendra112 8 10-5 Charlie Longsdon63 146 102 172
38 12-671 Saint Are45 10 10-5 Tom George80 Paddy Brennan 146 163 178
39 7P8-46 Home Farm41 9 10-4 Henry De Bromhead20 145 64 147
40 77F38 The Romford Pele24 9 10-4 Rebecca Curtis60 145 146 173
41 214F4 Knock House23 7 10-3 Mick Channon100 144 118 176
42 F30311 Bishops Road49 8 10-3 Kerry Lee86 Jamie Moore 144 142 182
43 82F1P7 Pineau De Re35 13 10-2 Dr Richard Newland100 Brian Hughes 143 146 172
44 4/54-8 Alvarado35 11 10-2 Fergal O´Brien20 Paul Moloney 143 153 166
45 84-721 Highland Lodge126 10 10-2 James Moffatt Henry Brooke 143 152 166
46 0-1356 Maggio27 11 10-2 Patrick Griffin 143 134 170
47 0-2510 Perfect Candidate23 9 10-2 Fergal O´Brien20 Conor Shoemark 143 136 172
48 6-4PP2 Present View11 8 10-2 Jamie Snowden40 143 148 172
49 9-4217 Midnight Prayer23 11 10-1 Alan King78 142 110 170
50 8-0051 Cause Of Causes23 8 10-1 Gordon Elliott40 142 142 183


#4

After applying all these trends to the field we are left with a more manageable list:-

Many Clouds Last years winner - carried 11st 9 to victory and looked a natural
Silviniaco Conti Has won over 1 million pounds in prize money. Is very classy!
Holywell On a nice h/cap mark, 4th in a Gold Cup. Wants good ground and can jump low sometimes.
The Druids Nephew Was leading the field in last years renewal before coming down 5 out.
Saint Are 2nd in last years race, Down the bottom of the weights.
Gallant Oscar Unseated when running in the Irish National 2014, trainer is one to note in h/caps
Goonyella 8th in the Welsh National, 7th in the Irish, 2nd in the Scottish and won the midlands national
Boston Bob Ruby Walsh rides has won 2 races worth over 100k each.
Alvarado May struggle to get in, 4th last 2 year so good each way shout if he gets in
Triolo Dalene Won the Hennessey and the Topham over the National fences. Although N De boinville chose Hadrians Approach
Just A Par His finest moment came in the bet365 gold cup over 3m 5 but others preffered
On His Own 12 now and was 2nd in a Gold Cup - Probably past his both
The Romford Pele In at the bottom of the weights, not a good jumper!! Others preferred
Soll 7th 9th and 11th last 3 years, hard to see him winning
Hadrians Approach only 2 runs the last 2 years but did win the bet365 gold cup. De Boinville picked it. Tough ask
Rocky Creek 5th and 17th last 2 years. Doesn;t quite stay imho.
Katenko In horrible form. Only one win over 3 miles. On a very nice h/cap mark if retaining ability

So we now have to look at these more closely to see what might in form and on a good handicap mark

So now the shortlist is down to 10. I will look at these and narrow down further later on.

Many Clouds Last years winner - carried 11st 9 to victory and looked a natural
Silviniaco Conti Has won over 1 million pounds in prize money. Is very classy!
Holywell On a nice h/cap mark, 4th in a Gold Cup. Wants good ground and can jump low sometimes.
The Druids Nephew Was leading the field in last years renewal before coming down 5 out.
Saint Are 2nd in last years race, Down the bottom of the weights.
Gallant Oscar Unseated when running in the Irish National 2014, trainer is one to note in h/caps
Goonyella 8th in the Welsh National, 7th in the Irish, 2nd in the Scottish and won the midlands national
Boston Bob Ruby Walsh rides has won 2 races worth over 100k each.
Triolo Dalene Won the Hennessey and the Topham over the National fences.
Katenko In horrible form. Only one win over 3 miles. On a very nice h/cap mark if retaining ability


#5

Ok Katenko is dropped as he was not placed in any of his starts this season
9 remain

Boston Bob is not ground dependent, classy but is eliminated as not placed in a race over 3 miles 3, 8 remain

Gallant Oscar’s wins are all on soft (not placed in a race over 3 miles 3) 7 remain
Triolo D’Alene hasn’t placed in a race over 3m 3 although he’s won a 3 mile 2 race 6 remain
Holywell is reluctantly ruled out on the placed over 3m 3 stat. Although he won a race over 3 miles 2 and was 4th in a Gold Cup so I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him 5 remain
Sivianaco Conti has won over a million pounds. That shows you how good he is. He has never placed over 3m 3 though so again reluctantly ruled out. If he gets into a jumping rhythm he’s a joy to watch. 4 remain

So the choice on trends are:-

The Druids Nephew has won on all going and has targeted this race
Goonyella worth an e/w shot if ground is soft!
Many Clouds Won last year and the weights are compressed giving him half a chance to repeat. Jump for fun last year.
Saint Are - Second in this race last year and down the bottom of the weights.


#6

A few others worth of note who didn’t quite fit the final 10 on trends.

People like different things so I’ll put a few on here and potential reasons:-

Horses well handicapped (After all it’s a handicap)

The Last Samuri (12lbs)
Cause of Causes (10lbs) unlikely to get in
Silvianaco Conti (6lbs)
Holywell (4 lbs)
Many Clouds (1 lb)
Ucello Conti (raced wide the whole way around last time, must have run an extra mile, very fishy)


#7

Great work Al - love the detail.
I’m already on Goonyella so your analysis is reassuring (plus I’m expecting a little more rain in Liverpool over the next couple of days…!) . Will probably back one more from your short list


#8

Really interesting work Al.

I’m going in on the Last Samuri with longer punts on both O’Faolains Boy & Wonderful Charm. I really like the latter actually. The distance of the race tends to tempt punters to look for stayers but history has shown that when better than soft it pays to have the pace to be in the front 3rd throughout.

Good luck all.


#9

Thanks guys, Last Samuri is officially the best handicapped horse in the race so has an obvious chance. O’ Faolains boy won the RSA beating Smad Place and is nicely waited on that form but hasn’t produced that sort of form this season. Wonderful Charm has never won a race over 3 miles so can’t have that. So that should win! Best of luck on whatever horse you pick


#10

Very Interesting read - will have a little dabble but no idea what yet - might see if anyone at work is doing a sweep stake and stick a fiver on whomever I draw… :sunglasses:

Edit - Actually isn’t Aintree a bunch of races over so many days like Cheltenham is with the ‘Grand National’ being the big one as the Gold Cup is at Cheltenham… and if so shame there’s no thread here with thoughts on all the other races which I guess start 2moro. Also do the bookies not do loads of offers like they did with Cheltenham festival?


#11

Yes and Yes Noel… Although the National is a big enough conundrum on its own, never mind the other races


#12

Is this any good (seen in a BetFair e-mail I just opened - I’m not into boxing so no idea if this is likely or not):