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Early NFL Super Bowl Champions Prices


#1

Is there any benefit to betting this early - I mean before the draft and off season moves as it’s a real crap shoot - I was wondering if any of the high high prices on teams that didn’t make post season this year might be worth a fiver here and there just in case they come from nowhere like Jacksonville did this season and you’ve locked in an over valued price?

EDIT

Here is a link to OddsChecker’s comparison grid showing many sports books Super Bowl 53 winner prices:

Super Bowl LIII prices (ongoing)


#2

I guess the question is - are you really confident that one or more teams is overpriced? And that you won’t be able to get that price later in the off season? If so, then I guess go for it - but bear in mind that your money will be in the bookies’ pocket for the next year, rather than yours, even if you do pick a winner.

If it helps, here are the bookies odds for every team at various points in 2017 (yes, I have too much time on my hands!!). You can see that from June to August to September, there was very little movement in the odds:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1GiDQdnZgDMdgONJc7BuJ-Gb5wCwNQow5

I’d say hang on for now - get a look at the draft, and then make an informed punt if you really like how a team is shaping up.


#3

All makes sense - I’ve already had two punts - I decided for 1 year every free bet I earn I’m gonna put on the Super Bowl winner outright market. So I’ve already used up two free bets - probably not wise as you say but I thought it would be fun - though a lot will be wasted as I’ll end up covering over half the teams. :football:


#4

Free bets are fine. Build up a portfolio of bets. And dont worry about wastage, I backed about a dozen teams in 2017, one of them was Philly, 10 quid at 50-1 :moneybag: That more than made up for the losers!! Could be your lucky year…


#5

Nice - must of been early or just after Wentz went down as I only got 14-1 at best on Eagles when I punted them after Wentz was down but pre post season.

I’ve already done them this year but only got 10-1.

My other free bet was 80-1 on Buffalo - you think what???

But my thinking was what team made post season last year but was longest odds now - Bills was the answer to that so free £5 bet went on!

As you say one long shot to hit and all be right! I’m annoyed Lions are so skinny considering they’ve never been to a Super Bowl and not won a post season game since about 1991 - I want 50’s+ minimum but books seem to have them between 25’s-33’s - not interested pre-season anything lower than 49’s!


#6

The AFC West looks quite winnable - KC might have some teething problems with a ‘rookie’ QB and their Def was flat out awful after Berry got hurt. Oakland are another team with plenty of issues on Def and it’s anyone’s guess what Gruden brings to the table these days. Denver could be a threat if they get a QB but nothing guaranteed there either.

That leaves the Chargers who arguably only missed out on the playoffs because they didn’t have a reliable kicker. A young team with talent on both sides of the ball, it’s not hard to see them going close next year. The schedule looks pretty reasonable with a nice looking slate against the AFC North plus the Bills and Titans. Obviously hosting a game in London isn’t ideal but home field advantage isn’t exactly a ‘thing’ in LA it seems! Four games v the NFC West should also help time-zone wise.

33/1 for Superbowl LIII looks pretty tempting at this stage imo


#7

Houston 28/1 and Denver 50/1, both in reletively week divisions, and Houston have argueably the best 2 pass rushers in the game, the best young QB and a great WR, if they draft well they could go very close.

Denver need to get Foles and a couple of decent O line men and they too will go close.

They are my 2 outsiders


#8

This thread will be so interesting to look back on this time next year. See how close any of these teams were or if indeed any lands. :pray:t3:


#9

I have a £10 free bet to use up on Unibet before the 20th of this month but alas there prices are not as generous as you guys mention you’ve seen on those teams. :confused:


#10

Bung yer free tenner on the Bears mate, guaranteed ££ 1 Grand for you :moneybag::moneybag::moneybag:


#11

or throw it on the floor but get you the same return!


#12

@JonCartwright - err no!

FYI all - in the end I went with the very underwhelming 10 /1 price on the Pittsburgh Steelers - but it’s a realistic shot me thinks.

Means I so far now have free bets on Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and
Pittsburgh Steelers to win Super Bowl 53 - reckon by next seasons playoffs would of backed half the teams lol :sunglasses: :football:


#13

FYI Just seen the LA Chargers price on Hills right now is 40’s.

When I earn a free bet there will have a piece if still this price or better.

Here’s all their prices as of Valentines day - Feb. 14th 2018


#14

Cheers Noel, I think I might have to step in again at 40’s. How can they be double the price of the 49’ers :face_with_raised_eyebrow:


#15

I agree Houston nice bet that


#16

Not so fast - William Hill are shady - all day was still showing 40’s for the Chargers - I just went to place my free £5 bet and instead of accepting I got this:

Bang the odds drop to the same price as other books all have - 33’s. Suspicious man that I am thinks this is by design advertise a juicy price but when you go to place drop to market price in hope your still place - well fuck Hills - just for this if I take 33’s it won’t be with them! Seems fishy to me! Any one else experienced anything like this?
I mean on an event that’s a year away no reason to adjust price right at point someone tries to place a bet?
After maybe if you think you must have price wrong but right at point of trying to place. #Fishy :fish:


#17

Alas best price I can find anywhere now for Houston is 25/1 so just put a free £10 bet on them.

Seems even in off season and prior to draft prices move I reckon the bookies check each others and adjust.

I wonder (am really interested to see) if the draft will cause prices to shift greatly?


#18

If the Vikes get Cousins as rumoured, expect the 16/1 to vanish fast


#19

Why would the Vikes want or need cousins they have or had 3 very capable QB’s last season - Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum & Sam Bradford?

I don’t see Cousins being an upgrade on those - just par. Unless Teddy can’t come back from his long term injury to the same level he was prior?

Case and Sam were more than serviceable - quite to my astonishment.

You got any wonga on the Vikes already Al?

Edit - according to OddsChecker best price is 17/1 @ BetStars for the Vikings right now - I have a few issues with them (BetStars) at the moment due to in the distant past apparently having a pokerstars account which is also them so means I need to verify myself and reopen that to be able to use Betstars and can’t join afresh. I couldn’t be arsed with all the hoops they put in front of me to jump through when I tried to do that so just didn’t bother carrying on meaning I can’t bet with them right now unfortunately.

Alas I guess we all have bookies that for whatever reason we can’t use - alas my list gets longer over time - Betfred binned me as suspected problem gambler and winner took exception to a complaint I made once and we decided to part ways as couldn’t amicably resolve issue. I bet others here have there own stories - I hate it when people who bet successfully get banned or restricted just for being good! That hasn’t befallen me (as yet) as guess I’m not a good betor but that when I see TV documentaries I think is really wrong - I know its a business but should be a law against it - I mean if a person’s good hire them as ya odds maker or something.


#20

Cousins is a close above those Noel.