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Cheltenham Tips Day 3


#1

JLT (Remember ti utilise the Ladbrokes and Sky Bet offers)

My tentative selection is Garde La Victoire. He has had 4 runs at Cheltenham, form read 2,1,1,1,

Douvan and No More heroes will run elsewhere.

Bristol De Mai is fairly consistent never out of the first 3 in England and jumps well.

Outlander has been running well in Ireland but disappointed me at last years festival and is short enough in the betting.

Black Hercules could be interesting each way.

Pertemps

Don’t back the French. French breds are 0/64 in this. Horses that won last time out have a good record.

My horses against the field are:-

Leave at Dawn although it is too short now. Everyone is the preview nights says it is well handicapped.

If In Doubt Ran a great race in the RSA last year and one for the shortlist. JP loves a handicap plot at the festival. Cup Final 10/1 is his too, trained by Henderson, Wouldn’t put you off that.

Missed Approach also won last time out and Our Kaempfer was brought down when still going ok.

Ryanair

We are not sure of all the runners of this one yet. A lot have multiple entries.

With the news that Vautour runs in this he should win this. If you can get even money or better then take it.

Vibrato Valtat 10/1 has run some very creditable races over 2 miles, so is interesting stepped up to 2 miles 4f.

Village Vic has had a resurgent season winning 2 handicaps over course and distance. He has a chance but horses going from handicaps to graded races have a poor record.

Al Ferof is too slow and never wins after Christmas. Although he has had a break and this could be a poor renewal. I still can’t have him.

Road to Riches and Valseur Lido are the possible owners running. Both need a trip in my view and should be in the Gold Cup. RTR likely will go there with Valseur Lido coming here.

Vroum Vroum Mag goes to the Mares Hurdle.

Smashing only interesting on soft ground,

Taquin De Seuil has been supplemented but beaten 38 lengths last year in this.

Dynaste won this two years ago but has been badly out of form. If he returns to his best he could go close.

Josses Hill 12/1 has always been a decent horse. His jumping has let him down at times but in his last race he was so impressive with his jumping.

Will probably back something as well else once the final declarations are announced.

World Hurdle

Thistlecrack 6/5 has been head and shoulders above everything since Aintree last year. He’d have to go close.

If the ground is good then Whisper and current champion Cole Harden (Had a 2nd wind op) are worth considering each way if you don’t want to back one at a short price.

Kilcooley needs soft ground I think

Aux Ptits Soins has had one race in England and that was a festival win in the Coral Cup. I heard Nicholls say that he and Saphir Du Rheu (last seasons runner up) did a 5f galllop in which APS never came off the bridle. Seems a tough ask after being off for a year and Nicholls isnt shy in talking up his horses.

Brown Plate

The declarations for this race are up in the air with most having multiple entries.

One I have backed is John’s Spirit. He’s a Cheltenham Specialist and has dropped down the weights this year and is on a nice mark. Jonjo is always worth following in h/caps.

Mares Novice.

A new race added to the festival this year.

The Irish are talking like favourite Limini can’t get beat. Banker of the meeting for some. Ruby Walsh says she will win at Royal Ascot as she is so classy.

Brian Ellison’s Smart Talk was described by him as the best he has had. And she might chase Limini home.

Kim Muir

This is normally a race for plodders. I have backed 3 against the field at bigger prices than they are now.

Doctor Harper could well be the best handicapped horse at the festival and should run here! Codd booked to ride

Cause of Causes Has a great record around Cheltenham

The Giant Bolster Has run some great races in the Gold Cup, if he turns up here you coudn’t rule him out on a course he likes dropped in class


#2

I’m going with Bristol De Mai as my only bet in the JLT.

Having not yet picked one in the Pertemps yet I am drawn towards Cup Final. Will leave it to the day though before picking a few.

In the Ryanair I have got to go with Vibrato Valtat with which I am on at 20/1. A friend of mine is a paid up member of the Axom syndicate that owns it and he has the inside scoop. It has been aimed at this since the turn of the year and they fancy their chances. Arguably, you could say they all fancy it but I’m in now anyway!

This is what he had to say on the race last week:

The Ryanair looks a decent race but probably grade 2 standard and not grade 1. I think we will be going there with a big chance and at current price of 11/1 he is a decent each way bet at the very least. The race looks like breaking up this week and Al Ferof will probably be favourite as well as one of the Giggingstown entries.

The main dangers for me are Josses Hill and Village Vic. Josses Hill could well be the class horse in the field if he jumps well and Village Vic is an improving horse that likes Cheltenham.

Backing Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle should be buying money! Okay, can’t believe I said that about a Cheltenham horse. Might be worth looking out for offers in relation to this race closer to the day. My each way pick is Alpha Des Obeaux who I backed at 16’s antepost and Prince Of Scars at 20/1.

I am also onside with John’s Spirit in the Brown Plate. I really like this horse.

Will leave the mares novice alone until the day.

Doctor Harper and Cause Of Causes for me in the Kim Muir.

I hope by the end of day 3 I am in profit!

// gulp //


#3

Let’s hope we are all in profit by day 3. Interesting with regards to Vibrato Valtat. Thanks for the info. The write up is pretty similar to my own so that’s good. Village Vic definitely has claims and has improved immensely after an injury free season.

I’d be interested to know you’re best Antepost vouchers, you sound like you might have some very tasty ones.


#4

I think I mostly mentioned them all to be honest. Douvan at 3/1 now seems like a steal! Kicking myself I didn’t have a single on this as it is in a few multiple bets.

Un De Sceaux was at 6/4 but again I have this tied in with other horses.

Listening to my friend harp on about Vibrato Valtat and his fantastic ownership experience (I’m not bitter he enjoys it so much - honest lol) and how the betting for the Ryanair has unfolded I feel very happy with the 20/1 price.

Alpha Des Obeaux in the World Hurdle at 16’s looking at how it has shortened up looks okay now for the each way thief in me. I have a little bit of money on this.

Bacardys in the bumper I took at 20’s and that price seems to have stuck all year.

Everything else I have backed fairly recently.


#5

Vautour goes in the Ryanair! Now that throws a potential spanner in the works.


#6

Not as confident now about Vibrato Valtat what with the other declarations for the Ryanair.


#7

Looks tough with Vautour in there!


#8

I’ve not looked at Lads at all - what’s their offer then?

Got caught out by Hills offer - didn’t realise fav and 2nd fav are excluded from their money back 2nd promo - I thought that meant if you selected the choice SP fav or second fav on the race card - doh! :disappointed:


#9

Sorry pros can I get some advice - what’s the cut off odds wise would you say for value not to be worth backing a horse e/w?

think I been doing to many horses e/w at short prices and now unsure whether the reward for the outlay is worth it looking back so wondered what you experienced punters do. What’s the odds cut off you would say its only worth doing to win on - 4/1, 5/1 or ???

Thanks.


#10

4/1 would be the cut off Noel, if they are offering e/w 1/4 of the odds. Hills money back 2nd applies to all horses Noel but must be done on the app and be a horse race on channel 4.


#11

I think today looks tricky, so keeping stakes low until tomorrow:-

  1. ZABANA 10-1 e/w (loves this ground)
  2. Paying first 5 so I’m playing a few each way OUR KAEMPFER (10-1), TAGLIETELLE (16-1)
    3.Vatour is pretty much the best horse I’ve ever seen at Cheltenham but it’s suposedly only 90% and at even money I’ll just be watching.
  3. I’m on WHISPER at 14’s and 15’s each way. Thistlecrack is a mile clear on ratings but I I think it’s been hyped. Some shrewedies are saying the bookies will try to lay this one and i it hits 2\1 I may play it, but I wouldn’t touch it at any less.
  4. Like race two. I’ve played FULL SHIFT, STILLETTO & FINGAL BAY - all 10-1
    6.LIMINI is a “steering job” running against horses nowhere to the same standard, but 4/6 at Cheltenham - no thanks
    7.CAUSE OF CAUSES @ 6-1 each way first five (saver on Doctor Harper which has been well touted).

Best of luck to everyone - you should be betting with house money by now


#12

Me like a divvy missed out on the free bet offer at Betfair as I used one of my free bets up from day before as a part stake to put my e/w bet on Blacklion precluding me from winning another free bet so in effect I threw away £25 - I must learn to utilise the offers better. Time to look at todays horses… so off to day 4 thread.