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Cheltenham Tips Day 1


#1

Supreme Novices

Min is the 2/1 favourite, there will probably be offers off the day, but it’s worth backing at Skybet (money back if it gets beat as a free bet). Mullins/Walsh has won this race for the last 3 years. Walsh gets the choice of Mullins’s battalions so maybe a tip in itself.

Betfair are also offering 3 x free bet if you have a 3/1 or bigger winner on day 1.

If the ground has good in it I would use this offer to back Altior 9/2 with Betfair.
If the ground is soft i’d probably side with Yorkhill for this bet (Runs in the Neptune)

Arkle

Douvan looks a stand out in this. Willie Mullins says quite openly it might be the best horse he’s had and that would be quite some claim. At 2/5 it’s just a watching brief for me as these are novices and will be jumping at great speed. If you’re betting something each way Boylesports offer money back for 2nd and 3rd to SP favourite.

Ultima Handicap Chase

Holywell 12\1 (Price going fast) nrnb catches the eye of his weight. Even more so if the ground is good. He won this race two years ago carrying 11st 6. He is set to carry 11st 2 if the weights don’t change. 4th in the Gold Cup last year on unfavourably soft ground.

Fingal Bay 20/1 is a classy horse and if he gets to carry 10st 4 in this he will be a danger. He took the pertemps here two years ago 2 years ago. I get the feeling he’s a better hurdler than a chaser though.

Beg to Differ looks interesting,nicely weighted and has interesting connections

Out Sam 8/1 Needs 12 horses to come out at time of writing, looks like a horse on the way up and would be off a very nice mark if he gets in.

Doctor Harper is a horse entered in many handicaps he is worth backing in whatever race he turns up in. Looka like he runs in the Kim Muir Thursday. Take 7/1 for it there!

Other horses worth noting
Un Temps Pour Tout was bought for nearly 500k. He’s won some top races in France but has been disappointing this season but his mark reflects this. Trainer knows how to win a handicap!

Kruzlinin is a horse that is in form and has been put up on a load of preview nights. Could be on a nice mark.

Caroles Destrier, The Young Master, Theatre Guide and Southfield Theatre would all have a chance. This race should cut up before the day.

Champion Hurdle

This is probably the most open race for years, A very hard race to call.

Annie Power would have obvious claims getting 7lbs off here male counterparts but I suspect she needs 2 miles 5.

Identity Thief is an improving horse beating Top Notch to win the Fighting Fifth earlier in the season. For me it’s an unknown on the track and good ground (if we get it).

Nichols Canyon has beaten Identity Thief and Faugheen this season. Would definitely have a chance if running up to that form.

The New One splits opinion, imho he is too slow for this race but he could well place. That said it’s not the strongest renewal of the race.

My Tent or Yours is the best horse in the race for me at his peak. But he’s had two years off the track and it would be some training feat for his to win. He’s always keen in his races and the better the ground the better his chance.

Annie Power would be a tentative choice as she gets the 7lb mares allowance. But no really strong opinion

Mares Hurdle

Vroum Vroum Mag should win this easily. At 11/10 nrnb Paddy Power (money back second) it’s the bet of the day for me!

Polly Peacham should chase her home.

National Hunt Chase (4 miler) - Amateur riders race

It normally pays to follow the best amateur riders in this race. These are:-

Derek O’ Connor rides the favourite Minella Rocco, JJ Codd will ride Noble Endeavour, Nina will ride Southfield Royale.

Others worthy of note.

Roi Des Francs would be interesting in this but will go RSA most likely, Native River (O’connor jumped off this to ride Minella Rocco), Pont Alexandre was touted as something special a couple of years ago but has had lots of problems. Vincente for Nicholls is joint top rated on racing post rating has will biddick riding and has some pretty decent form to boot. Shaneshill is also interesting if he takes his chance.

Novices Handicap

I like Bouvreuil for Nicholls in this. My other two against the field would be Aloomomo and **Killer Crow.**(Balloted out)

Again make use of Betfair’s 3 x free bets if you get a winner of 3/1 or more. Sky Bet do money back as free betfor the first race of each day. Paddy Power money back on all seconds. Boylesports money back all 2nd and 3rds to SP favourite. Ladbrokes and Hill will do money back all 2nds on the day I presume as well.


#2

https://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/cheltenham/


#3

Al - great write up, I have a few of those and I like your betting strategies. I will try to post when I get chance.

Interesting what you say about Ruby having ‘choice’ to ride any of the Mullins horses - I honestly don’t think the jocks yield nearly as much control as we are led to believe, (even Ruby Walsh). They are paid employees of very important and powerful owners & trainers, whilst I’m sure they have an opinion and preference over which horse to sit on, on the whole I’m sure they are “told” what they are riding.


#4

Thanks Dean.

I think he would get the choice in the Supreme as Rich Ricci and Graham Wylie are both big owners. But you will never really know for sure I guess. There might be a touch of; if you want to ride Faugheen, Douvan Vautour etc then you’ll ride Min! Cooper will always ride the Gigginstown horses and Geraghty will ride JP’s horses but you are led to believe at least that Ruby get’s the choice.


#5

So many nags I don’t know whether I am coming or going - same with the offers it’s hard to know what to place where especially as the odds keep shifting and then your weighing the juice (special terms) against the odds as to where to lay your money down.

Any way great read Al - especially for a novice - hell virgin - like myself.

I take it many of you seasoned betters back more than one horse each race - maybe a few at adjusted odds to turn a profit should on of ya picks win or a few place right?

I almost need someone to talk me through what stakes on what horse where… to try and come out up over these 4 days.

My horse card needs some wins:

Noels 2016 GG Betting History


#6

Any one doing this stick an entry in my TFP league: Fantasy Racing - CHELTENHAM (Free League - just for bragging rights)


#7

A lot of these Handicaps horses have multiple entries and not all of them will run as the race will cut up at the next forfeit stage. They are 24 runners and all weighted to finish the same. So you need two or three to go to war with. Hence I put a few in, but they are in order of preference if that helps. I would say any horse that is bigger than 3/1 with the same odds at all bookies, you may as well utilise the Betfair offer. Skybet offer only applied to race 1 of each day.


#8

Min looks like some animal and I don’t know if Altior has the pace to cope with him. For me Yorkhill looks the main danger. Back in the summer I liked the look of the Willie Mullins trained French recruit Bachasson and I put quite a large each way ante post bet on it. It has a number of other entries but I hope it lines up for this! The horse has some engine on it. Looking at the field now, and watching its last run which was poor, and from my optimism back in the summer, I am not nearly as confident now. Bachasson is/was my speculative punt of the festival.

The Arkle is pretty much a penalty kick for Douvan. I have it at 3/1 in various multiples but these bets don’t look quite as attractive now as they include some non runners such as Faugheen, amongst others. It’s way too short now though and I may look at placing a bet on the day without Douvan.

Champion Hurdle looks wide open. Again I have gone for a bit of a punt in this one. A horse I have been following this season Lil Rockerfeller has been supplemented for this. His stable is in great form and at 33/1 I couldn’t resist. The New One and My Tent Or Yours are also on various bets for me. What a story it would be if My Tent Or Yours turns up!

The other races on day one I will pick out my horses on the day.

As mentioned already up above, skybet’s offer on the first race is fantastic and after that betfair’s 3/1 3 free bets is a nice sweetener. Don’t forget the betbright 50/1 offer any horse on the first race of the festival too. £1 stake, paid in free bets, new customers only. I’m on Min for this. Offer is limited and probably won’t last much longer.

Stan James last year were also good with the free bets.

Good luck everyone, looking forward to the day 2, 3 and 4 preview threads.


#9

Bachasson is 90 on Betfair for this and listed as doubtful on the Racing Post race card. Hope you get a run for your money.

I’d love to see My Tent or Yours win, but seems a tough ask being off for two years


#10

Yeah those the perils of the antepost player. Hehe.


#11

Bachasson not running as expected really. Interesting that Yorkhill doesn’t go, Neptune bound you’d think. Textbook Mullins getting the antepost punters in a flap so close to the off. Hehe.

Only 6 taking on Douvan for The Arkle.


#12

Yeah Mullins confirmed Yorkhill goes to the Neptune. On a brighter note Felix Yonger is declared for the Champion Chase.

Yeah 7 runner si n the Arkle meaning only 2 each way unless Ante post.


#13

I personally fancy the Mullins 4 timer, Min, Douvan, Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag (managed to get at 3/1 early in the year, as thought AP would go world hurdle). So will have a few doubles and and the quad on them, at around 30/1 right now.

In the 2:50 going BEG TO DIFFER 12/1 as a horse who could still be improving and be ahead of his rating.

And in the 5:30 going THOMAS BROWN 16/1 looks overpriced if his jumping holds up.

Happy hunting


#14

Yeah I added Beg to Differ earlier as it fits all the trends and could be open to loads of improvement. Ground may be a worry.

Have had a bet on the 4 timer too!


#15

Whilst still on Min it has to be noted that he’s never been to Cheltenham before. With that in mind I’ve got Min with the Betbright 50/1 offer and will be using the skybet lose free bet offer for a punt on Supasundae.

Good luck to all tomorrow! Can’t wait.


#16

Maybe I should of looked before now - best price I can see on Odds Checker now is 9/1 but if I wanna go for that Betfair offer their only offering 8’s!


#17

Won’t go into too much detail but here’s the gist of my bets. I’m generally a £25 bet punter, so almost every bet I’ve had is linked to a money back offer or extra place terms.

RACE ONE
Laid Min at 9/4 & 5/2, with a view to betting it back at higher prices which is unlikely to happen now, with the withdrawal of the second fav yesterday. So I’ll bet Min with PP and hope it comes second (MB for second).
I’m on Altoir at 5-1 (Betfair to get the free offer) and Supasunday 12-1(with Sky, MBS)

TWO
Can’t remember a horse hyped as much as Douvan, it was last year and even more this year, it may go on to fulfil the hype but @ 1-3, a bet on Sizing John (10-1) with Boylesports (MB if 2nd or 3rd) is a better bet, it would need the fav to make a mistake but this is Cheltenham and horses make mistakes.

THREE
Morning Assembley - 14-1, e/w 1,2,3,4,5

FOUR
Nichols Canyon - Tom Segal said before Faugheen was pulled out that he thought Annie Power was the only horse capable of giving him a race in the CH. If she makes no mistakes with 7lb weight allowance she should win, but I really like Nichols Canyon, he could dictate race then simply win if he runs to his best, i’m on at 6-1 and will bet this again with PP @ 11/2 so MB if 2nd to AP.
Camping Ground 25-1 EW
Sempre Medici 25-1 WIN - MBS if 2nd/3rd with Boylesports

FIVE
Can’t have VVM @ evens so doing Polly Peacham (11/2) with Boylseports (MB if 2nd/ 3rd to fav)

SIX
More about Jockeys than Horses. I’m playing the front two in the market, win only with WH, they are returning stakes should all four Mullins hotpots all win. I don’t think that will happen but this is my insurance bet if it does.
Minella Rocco @ 6.s and Noble Endeavour @ 7’s
(also doing these with Betfair to try and land their bonus).

SEVEN
Betfair paying 1,2,3,4,5, each way terms. I have McKinley @ 14’s and will sprinkle several others in if I haven’t landed their bonus by this stage.


#18

Placed some more bets this morning utilizing free offers.

1.30 Supasundae
2.10 Sizing John
2.50 Beg To Differ
3.30 Lil Rockerfeller/Camping Ground
4.10 Vroum Vroum Mag/Flute Bowl
4.50 Measureofmydreams
5.30 Amore Alato


#19

So on recommended bets we have 5 winners (Altior,9/2 Douvan, 2/5 Annie Power,5-2 VVM 11-10 and Minella Rocco won 9/1. Also a 14-1 Bouvreuil and 12-1 Holywell second in the Handicaps,plus money back on Min. If you had followed you’d have made a very nice profit.


#20

I got on some late and thus had different (worse) odds. Missed on Altior as was on Min and didn’t cover - didn’t really know what I was doing. But great advice will check here first next year if people posting their thoughts up as I no knowing about Horses so reading thoughts of those who do is really interesting and helps massively to get an insight/idea on what GG to back. :+1: